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Basic of Null and Alternative Hypothesis

Basic of Null and Alternative Hypothesis

20 views1 week ago

YouTubeProbability and Statistics

Questions on the HFT Indicator:1. How do you know that smart money has made this or that amount of long positions?2. Where do you see the data?3. Is this OI data? Ans: No, as OI data is not real-time, but our indicator provides real-time updates on smart money positions with a high probability.If you have any queries, please feel free to ask.

Questions on the HFT Indicator:1. How do you know that smart money has made this or that amount of long positions?2. Where do you see the data?3. Is this OI data? Ans: No, as OI data is not real-time, but our indicator provides real-time updates on smart money positions with a high probability.If you have any queries, please feel free to ask.

4.9K views1 week ago

x.comArkabrata Das

Today’s NQ ORB15 range (9:30–9:45) showed an 82% probability for LONGS.Price pushed directly into the level highlighted by the Intelligent Balance Probability Map……and immediately reversed.No continuation.No extended move.But the level was respected almost perfectly.That matters.The job of the indicator is not to predict every tick after the target is reached.Its job is to identify the statistically more probable side and highlight the level the market is most likely to seek.Today, it did exactl

Today’s NQ ORB15 range (9:30–9:45) showed an 82% probability for LONGS.Price pushed directly into the level highlighted by the Intelligent Balance Probability Map……and immediately reversed.No continuation.No extended move.But the level was respected almost perfectly.That matters.The job of the indicator is not to predict every tick after the target is reached.Its job is to identify the statistically more probable side and highlight the level the market is most likely to seek.Today, it did exactl

17K views2 weeks ago

x.comHerman Trading

Trading the Initial Balance with a quantitative framework is the ultimate capital preservation tool: -> The IB fixes the structural volatility bandwidth for the entire session -> The indicator outputs the exact probability of an extension versus a trap -> Emotional, unforced errors are mechanically filtered out by the data -> Execution becomes a strict binary function, protecting live equityThe real edge is never about catching a massive runner on intuition. It is submitting to the statistical p

Trading the Initial Balance with a quantitative framework is the ultimate capital preservation tool: -> The IB fixes the structural volatility bandwidth for the entire session -> The indicator outputs the exact probability of an extension versus a trap -> Emotional, unforced errors are mechanically filtered out by the data -> Execution becomes a strict binary function, protecting live equityThe real edge is never about catching a massive runner on intuition. It is submitting to the statistical p

1.9K views2 weeks ago

x.comNomadaScalper

Whenever someone says an election result was “mathematically impossible,” my first question is:What assumptions did you use?If you assume the remaining ballots are a random sample of all voters, you can get very dramatic probability estimates.But California doesn’t count ballots in random order.The relevant question isn’t the size of the deficit.It’s the composition of the ballots that remained uncounted.In statistics, a bad assumption can produce a very precise answer that is completely wrong.

Whenever someone says an election result was “mathematically impossible,” my first question is:What assumptions did you use?If you assume the remaining ballots are a random sample of all voters, you can get very dramatic probability estimates.But California doesn’t count ballots in random order.The relevant question isn’t the size of the deficit.It’s the composition of the ballots that remained uncounted.In statistics, a bad assumption can produce a very precise answer that is completely wrong.

1.4M views2 weeks ago

x.comDr Terry Simpson

The Mathematical Trap Most People Fall For (The Monty Hall Paradox)

The Mathematical Trap Most People Fall For (The Monty Hall Paradox)

YouTubeGeoFlash

In our 🌎 World Cup Simulator you can:✅ estimate probabilities for each position, projected points and goal difference for each of the 48 teams✅ see the most likely KO opponent for every team in each possible scenario✅ learn how many points and goal difference each team needs to qualify as a 3rd placed team✅ see what are the most likely of the 495 possible knockout bracket combinations✅ access model-based probabilities for Golden Boot and Most Assists races✅ access pre-match predictions (score p

In our 🌎 World Cup Simulator you can:✅ estimate probabilities for each position, projected points and goal difference for each of the 48 teams✅ see the most likely KO opponent for every team in each possible scenario✅ learn how many points and goal difference each team needs to qualify as a 3rd placed team✅ see what are the most likely of the 495 possible knockout bracket combinations✅ access model-based probabilities for Golden Boot and Most Assists races✅ access pre-match predictions (score p

21.2K views3 weeks ago

x.comFootball Meets Data

தவெகவினரை தற்குறிகள் என அழைப்பதில் எனக்கு உடன்பாடு இல்லை. ஆனால் இந்த அமைச்சர் பெருமகனார் தமிழை பார்த்து வாசிக்கும் லட்சணம் அந்த பெயருக்கு பொருத்தமானதுதான்.பார்த்து வாசிக்கும்போது இப்படி உளறுவதை வாசிப்புத் திறமையின்மை என்று மட்டும் நினைத்துவிடக் கூடாது. நிதியியல் குறித்து அவருக்கு ஒன்றும் தெரியவில்லை என்பதையே இது காட்டுகிறது.ஒரு தேர்ந்த பொருளாதாரவாதி, நிதி நிலைமை குறித்து தெளிவாக எடுத்துரைக்கத் தெரிந்தவராக இருப்பார். இவர் பேசுவதைப் பார்த்தால் LKG குழந்தையிடம் probability theory குறித்து கேட்பது ப

11.8K views1 week ago

x.comThe Kevin Paul Show

The World Cup Whale: Making $1,651,017 on Football Mispricings in a WeekProfile Statistics:> Total Profit: $1,651,017.50> The Biggest Win: $1.0M> Total Forecasts: 10The Strategy: Value Betting High-Liquidity Sports Markets> Buying the Undervalued: He enters positions when the market overreacts to live match dynamics or heavily misprices group-stage outcomes, buying "Yes" or "Under/Over" shares between 33¢ and 64¢. Essentially, he spots gaps between implied probabilities and real-world football d

6.9K views1 week ago

THIS IS WHAT AN A+ SETUP ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE.On Friday, $ES printed TEXTBOOK bullish signatures:• liquidity sweep• bullish iFVG• bullish CISD• clean LONG confirmationBut Intelligent Balance showed:81% probability toward the SHORT side.So instead of chasing the obvious long setup, I waited.The bullish move was MANIPULATION. The real opportunity came when price aligned with the more probable direction.That is the part most traders miss.A perfect entry is useful.But the direction matters more.When

13.9K views3 weeks ago

x.comHerman Trading

It worked.Gave Claude $20.Left it coding overnight.Woke up to:• finished script• +$95 from first 5 tradesDidn’t touch anything.Then I found this wallet:0xb27b...b82• $384,858 profit• 13,070 predictions• $18.5K biggest win• Started March 2026Almost no one is watching it.While building my script, I copytraded it to test the math.Started with $80.→ $4,218 in a few weeksEvery position is identical in structure.Not trading.One equation.Running while you sleep.Examples:$17,839 → $36,318 (+103%)$3,112

391 views1 week ago

IVE BEEN SAYING THIS AND IM ALLEGEDLY A “TOXIC” FAN AND EVEN IM SAYING THISI THINK THE KNICKS SHOULD BE IN THE +110 RANGE, NOT +170A 13.5% IMPLIED PROBABILITY DIFFERENTIALWHY THE 13.5% DISLOCATION?PEOPLE WILL PAY A PREMIUM FOR A GENERATIONAL ALIEN LIKE WEMBY AND PEOPLE WILL ALSO DISCOUNT THE KNICKS BC “ITS THE KNICKS AND 53 YEARS”THE CLOSEST HISTORICAL COMP IS THE 95 MAGIC WITH A 22 Y/O SHAQ WERE -150 OVER THE 6TH SEED ROCKETSROCKETS SWEPT THEMITS POSSIBLE THE ALGOS AND MARKET MISPRICE GENERATIO

113.1K views3 weeks ago

x.comAri From Manhattan 💧💧

A former Goldman Sachs quant trader taught me one lesson that changed everything:«“We don’t make predictions. We only buy when the market is wrong by more than 6%.”»That’s it.The same principle used by teams managing hundreds of millions of dollars.I took that idea, fed it into Claude along with a few open-source libraries, and built a market scanner that now analyzes 400+ prediction markets every hour.Instead of guessing outcomes, it looks for contracts where market prices and estimated probabi

16.9K views2 weeks ago

The future of news might not be opinions.It might be probabilities.Prediction Markets create financial incentives for people to be correct, not just loud.One of the most interesting ideas from the Kalshi Founder interview with Kevin

1.1K views3 weeks ago

x.comMercy$now 🦅

Prior to the South Korea vs. Czechia World Cup match, Litebeam $LBM was used to gather data and generate outcome probabilities from a single prompt. Prediction: South Korea win: 38%Draw: 33% Czech win: 30% Outcome correct.Microservice calls: 8Total cost: $0.05

746 views2 weeks ago

Looksmaxxer Dillon Latham believes most men should stay ignorant to the real probabilities of success 👀After studying philosophy, psychology and religion, he realized knowing too much only leads to misery… Instead, people should stay delusional, focus on the positive side of life and lock in on their skillset.

1.4K views2 weeks ago

And there it is: J.J. Carrell: Retired Deputy Patrol Agent U.S. Border, officially VINDICATED: The federal government under the Biden-Harris Terrorist Administration is the world's largest child sex trafficking organization on the planet. @JJCarrell14 “I state without reservation that the United States federal government under Joe Biden and Kamala Harris is the world's largest child sex trafficking organization in modern history. The probability…that thousands of these children are being raped a

17.2K views2 weeks ago

x.com🇺🇸RealRobert🇺🇸

AI innovation moves faster when builders spend less time on infrastructure.GMI AgentBox brings the pieces together so teams can focus on building.#GMICloud #GMIAgentBox@gmi_cloud

984.6K views3 weeks ago

x.comProbability and Statistics

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